US growers are pulling back on potatoes for a second straight year, and the 2026 crop looks set to take the country's planted area below its modern low. North American Potato Market News (NAPMN) puts the 2026 area at roughly 878,000 acres — down about 2.7% on the year — a level the US has not seen in more than seven decades. With planting now complete, trade analysts are confident in the direction and rough scale, though USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service will not publish its first official figure until its Acreage report on 30 June.
Where the cuts land
Idaho, the largest US potato state, accounts for most of the decline. NAPMN projects the state down around 15,000 acres — close to 5% — to roughly 300,000 acres. Washington, the second-largest producer, is seen broadly flat near 145,000 acres after a sharp reduction the year before, when USDA recorded its planted area falling from 160,000 to 145,000 acres. Across most other states the moves are marginal, a few hundred acres added or taken out.
| Metric | 2024 (USDA) | 2025 (USDA) | 2026 (NAPMN proj.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| US planted area | 930,000 ac | 912,000 ac | ~878,000 ac |
| US planted area (ha) | 376,000 | 369,000 | ~355,000 |
| Idaho planted | 315,000 ac | 315,000 ac | ~300,000 ac |
| Washington planted | 160,000 ac | 145,000 ac | ~145,000 ac |
| US production | 421 M cwt | 412 M cwt | ~405 M cwt |
| US production (M t) | 19.1 | 18.7 | ~18.4 |
What's driving the pullback
The contraction reflects a familiar mix of pressures rather than any single shock. Processor contract volumes have been trimmed, alternative crops offer weak returns, input costs remain high, and parts of the growing region face drought concerns — the factors AgWest Farm Credit and NAPMN both point to behind the reduced plantings. The market backdrop is soft: USDA put 1 April potato stocks at 127.3 million hundredweight, down 1.4% on the year, and spot prices have stayed historically weak even as processing demand has firmed.
Yields are doing the heavy lifting
A smaller footprint does not translate one-for-one into a smaller crop. US potato yields reached a record 461 hundredweight per acre in 2025 — six above 2024 and, by USDA's reckoning, more than double the 1950s average — and that productivity gain has repeatedly offset shrinking acreage. Applying the same yield to NAPMN's projected area would put the 2026 crop near 18.4 million tonnes, around 405 million hundredweight, only one to two percent below the 412 million USDA recorded for 2025. Final output will hinge on the season's actual yield.
Why it matters for the industry
For the frozen-potato trade, the headline acreage cut likely overstates the supply risk to fries. USDA data show processing use ran 10.4% higher across February and March, led by frozen products, and record yields are cushioning total output. The tighter raw-material balance and historically weak spot prices are a margin story worth watching — but processing demand enters the new season intact. How the cut breaks down by segment, fry-grade versus table and dehydration, will become clear with USDA's 30 June report.
Methodology and notes
The 2026 area is a projection from North American Potato Market News, not an official USDA figure. USDA NASS publishes its first 2026 estimate in the Acreage report on 30 June 2026 and revises through the season.
"More than 70 years": NAPMN frames its projection as the smallest US potato area since 1952; USDA's Economic Research Service describes the comparable 2025 figure as the smallest among the 13 NASS-surveyed states since 1954. We use the conservative "more than 70 years."
The 2026 production figure (~18.4 million tonnes / ~405 million cwt) is a FriesNews calculation applying 2025's record yield of 461 cwt per acre to NAPMN's projected area at 2025 abandonment rates; actual output depends on the final yield.
Conversions: 1 hectare = 2.47105 acres; 1 cwt (100 lb) = 0.0453592 tonnes. Acreage rounded to the nearest thousand.
USDA NASS publishes its first official 2026 US potato acreage, with state-level detail, in the Acreage report on 30 June 2026. The production and yield baselines cited here are from USDA NASS's North American Potatoes report (December 2025).
Takeaway US potato ground is shrinking to levels unseen in more than 70 years — but record yields mean the crop, and fry supply, is contracting far less than the acreage headline suggests. The 30 June USDA estimate will show how much of the projection holds.
